Missouri Valley Conference Basketball Tournament Preview

2009 MVC Basketball Tournament Preview

Few conference tournaments deliver as much unpredictability as the event known as Arch Madness, the Missouri Valley bash held annually in St. Louis. When this year's extravaganza tips off at the Scottrade Center, longtime Valley watchers should expect more of the same. An intriguing bracket in a competitive league promises first-rate thrills for the fans able to endure the slumping economy and make the trek to the Gateway City.
 
The shape of this tournament is fascinating, but before addressing the matchups on tap in St. Louis, it's worth briefly mentioning how they came to be in the first place. Drake, the defending tournament champion, would have avoided the play-in round had it managed to bump Bradley on Saturday in Peoria. But since the Braves held off the Bulldogs by two points (77-75) in triple overtime, the folks from Des Moines have to put on their sneakers on Thursday, and fight through four games if they want their second straight tourney title.
 
Conversely, Southern Illinois--sitting in eighth place entering the final day of the regular season, nipped Wichita State at the wire to claim the fifth seed and a play-in bye. The Shockers began Saturday's action in a quarterfinal spot, but one loss in Carbondale cooked their plans for a duty-free Thursday. When all was said and done in the Valley, places five through nine were separated by a single game. Yes, Indiana State's No. 9 seed is accompanied by an entirely respectable 7-11 league record. A few points here or there, and the Sycamores would be sitting the quarterfinals with a chance to win the tournament. It's asking too much of Indiana State to expect them to win the whole ball of wax, but one of the two "ISUs" in the league could certainly win a game and then make top seed Northern Iowa sweat bullets come the quarters. Yes, the Valley is that competitive... just as it always seems to be.

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Since we've already peeked at a possible Indy State-UNI matchup, let's now look at the whole bracket. First of all, every matchup should be taken seriously. Valley observers should know this, but just in case any of the big dogs (UNI, Creighton, and Illinois State) feels as though a quarterfinal looks comfortable, reality suggests otherwise. Indiana State and also Drake (the No. 7 seed) really messed with the top teams in the conference during regular-season action. The Sycamores swept Illinois State, while Drake won at Creighton and UNI. Those tidy little facts should strip the heavyweights of any possible complacency. None of the high seeds are entirely safe.
 
Looking a little closer at the field and its matchups, the biggest of the big-picture realities to consider is that UNI won the tiebreaker with Creighton for the top seed in the event. Yes, it's true that a top seed has won this event just once since 1998 (Drake, last season), so it's not as though a top seed magically makes the Panthers the favorite for the event.
 
No, the reason why the "(1)" matters for the sons of Cedar Falls is that the top seed enables UNI to avoid Creighton and Illinois State in the semifinals. Sure, No. 4 seed Bradley or longtime Valley stalwart Southern Illinois (at No. 5) will pose a formidable challenge in the semis, but with that said, a confrontation with the Bluejays or Redbirds would have been even more daunting. Since UNI has to win this tournament in order to reach the NCAA field, it's a blessing that the Panthers can build for Championship Sunday, and not have to endure a taxing semifinal against one of two high-octane teams. The Braves or Salukis might jump Northern Iowa in the end, but all things considered, UNI got the best draw it could have hoped for.
 
Moving from the top half to the bottom half of this bracket, the focus naturally shifts to the touted teams from Omaha and Normal. Creighton and Illinois State have proven performers and savvy coaches, making the two benches of Birds (one blue, one red) very difficult to topple. Wichita State--led by an NCAA Tournament coach in Gregg Marshall (from Winthrop)--has every chance of making Creighton squirm in the quarters; the same applies for slow-pace Evansville, a No. 6 seed who could frustrate the up-tempo Redbirds in Friday's fourth quarterfinal. With that having been said, however, it would be hard to think that the Bluejays and the other ISU (Illinois version) won't lock horns in a sexy semi. If that matchup occurs, it will be the most attractive one in this four-day festival of Valley roundball. This is where the NCAA Tournament comes into a discussion of the 2009 MVC Tournament. 
 
If Creighton and Illinois State do indeed reach the semis, an extra element of intrigue will come from the Division I-A Men's Basketball Committee. Over the past few days, a lot of bubble teams have given the burdened committee--sitting in the NCAA's Indianapolis offices--an easy reason to exclude them from the field of 65. Teams such as Siena, Utah State, San Diego State, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, and Maryland (along with several others) have failed to win the kinds of games that would punch a ticket to the Big Dance.
 
Into this void steps a Creighton team that, while short on top-50 wins in the RPI index, has won 10 straight games and has a non-conference win on its resume (Dayton) that can impress the committee. Yes, a lot of bubble teams have more quality wins, but recent weeks have seen these same bubble teams compile some very bad losses. Creighton only has the home setback against Drake... and Bulldog backers would naturally disagree with that statement. The politics of the moment frankly suggest that Creighton isn't getting a long look from the committee at this point; however, if the Bluejays were to beat Illinois State in the semis, the act of merely reaching the title game would force the boys in Indianapolis to consider Dana Altman's men in the week leading up to Selection Sunday. Creighton is the one Valley team that can lose this tournament (in the finals, not earlier) and possibly snag an at-large bid if the chips fall in the right direction. That fact makes a semifinal against the Redbirds even more appealing.

What are we left with, as the countdown to Arch Madness intensifies? Ironically, a tournament known for craziness could very well produce some chalk this time around. Every game really does figure to be a dogfight, but when the smoke clears in St. Louis, Northern Iowa's avoidance of the big dogs should carry the Panthers to a narrow semifinal win over SIU, who might regain that old Valley mojo in this postseason event. On the bottom half of the bracket, the significance of a semifinal win--and the at-large NCAA bid that could come with it (not a lock, mind you; probably a 35-percent chance, to be brutally honest)--will give Creighton just enough fuel to race into the championship game.
 
When the CBS Sports cameras arrive for the Sunday spectacular, Creighton will probably be the experts' pick. But after the draining duel against the non-stop guards from Normal, the Bluejays will get their wings clipped by the slower but steadier Panthers. The one seed beats a two, in a matchup of the regular-season co-champions, for the MVC Tourney title.
 
Just watch, then, as all hell breaks loose, and Bradley beats Evansville for the whole enchilada.
 
Pretty unrealistic, right? Not at the Missouri Valley Tournament.
 
Game on. May the best team--and the strongest survivor--win.

> Follw the entire 2009 Missouri Valley Conference Tournament here at MVC-fans.com

By: Matt Zemek
DFN Sports Staff Writer